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失去了工作,工作中获得什么工作的未来将意味着就业,技能和工资

在通过自动化和人工智能的迅速发展为标志的时代,新的研究评估丢失,到2030年,在不同情况下获得就业机会的作业。

技术驱动的世界我们生活是充满了诺言世界也是挑战。 Cars that drive themselves, machines that read X-rays, and algorithms that respond to customer-service inquiries are all manifestations of powerful new forms of automation. Yet even as these technologies increase productivity and improve our lives, their use will替代一些工作活动人类目前执行-发展已经引发了公众的广泛关注。

视频
自动化和工作的新世界
强大的新技术正在提高生产力,改善生活,重塑我们的世界。但是我们的工作怎么办呢?

基于我们对2017年1月报告自动化,麦亚搏平台登录肯锡全球研究院的最新报告,失去工作,获得工作:自动化时代的劳动力转移(PDF 5MB),评估的数量和类型的,可能在不同情况下,通过2030年创造的就业机会,并比较了那些可能会丢失自动化作业。

结果表明潜在的变化在职业丰富的镶嵌在未来几年,随着对劳动力的技能和工资水平具有重要意义。 Our key finding is that while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to 2030 under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging—matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.

  1. 自动化会对工作产生什么影响?
  2. 就业增长的可能性有哪些?
  3. 将来会有足够的工作吗?
  4. 自动化对技能和工资意味着什么?
  5. 我们如何管理即将到来的劳动力转移?
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1.什么样的影响将自动化对工作?

我们以前发现,大约有一半的活动的人的工资在全球范围内做亚博棋牌游戏是什么平台-理论上可以实现自动化使用当前展示的技术。 Very few occupations—less than 5 percent—consist of activities that can be fully automated.

然而,在约60职业%,至少三分之一的组成活动可以自动化,这意味着大量的工作场所转换和所有工人的变化。

虽然自动化的技术可行性是非常重要的,它是不是会影响自动化采用的步伐和程度的唯一因素。 Other factors include the cost of developing and deploying automation solutions for specific uses in the workplace, the labor-market dynamics (including quality and quantity of labor and associated wages), the benefits of automation beyond labor substitution, and regulatory and social acceptance.

互动

考虑到这些因素,我们的新的研究估计,之间的时间几乎为零,30%的全球工作可以自动化,到2030年,这取决于采用的速度。 We mainly use the midpoint of our scenario range, which is automation of 15 percent of current activities. Results按国家显著差异,反映了目前由工人进行活动的结构和现行工资率。

潜力自动化的对就业的影响不同的职业和行业(见上图)。最易受自动化影响的活动包括可预测环境中的物理活动,如操作机器和准备快餐。收集和处理数据是另外两类活动,它们越来越多地可以用机器更好更快地完成。这可能会取代大量的劳动力——例如,在抵押贷款发放、律师助理工作、会计和后台事务处理方面。

然而,重要的是要注意,即使有些任务是自动化的,这些职业的就业率可能不会下降,而是工人可能执行新的任务。

自动化对涉及人员管理、应用专业知识和社会互动的工作影响较小,而这些工作目前机器还无法与人类的表现相匹配。

到2030年,在不可预测的环境中工作——比如园丁、水管工、儿童和老人看护等职业——通常也会出现自动化程度降低的情况,因为这些职业在技术上很难实现自动化,而且工资往往相对较低,这使得自动化成为一个不那么有吸引力的商业主张。

第二节
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2. 就业增长的可能性有哪些?

被自动化取代的工人很容易被发现,而由技术间接创造的新工作则不那么容易被发现,而且分布在不同的行业和地区。我们模拟了一些新的劳动力需求的潜在来源,这些需求可能会在2030年之前刺激就业岗位的创造,即使不考虑自动化。

对于前三个趋势,我们仅根据各国当前的支出和投资趋势建立趋势线情景模型。

收入和消费的增长,尤其是在新兴经济体

我们之前估计过全球消费量将230000亿$ 2015至2030年间增长其中大部分将来自新兴经济体的消费阶层。该 effects of these new consumers will be felt not just in the countries where the income is generated but also in economies that export to these countries. Globally, we estimate that 250 million to 280 million new jobs could be created from the impact of rising incomes on consumer goods alone, with up to an additional 50 million to 85 million jobs generated from higher health and education spending.

人口老龄化

到2030年,至少会有3亿多的人年龄在65岁及以上比2014年还要多。随着人们年龄的增长,他们的消费模式发生了变化,在医疗和其他个人服务方面的支出明显增加。这将对一系列职业产生巨大的新需求,包括医生、护士和卫生技术人员,但也包括许多国家的家庭卫生助理、个人护理助理和护理助理。在全球范围内,我们估计,到2030年,医疗保健和与老龄化相关的工作岗位将增加5000万至8500万个。

技术的开发和部署

与开发和部署新技术相关的工作也可能增加。从2015年到2030年,在技术方面的总体支出可能增加50%以上。大约一半的人将使用信息技术服务。该 number of people employed in these occupations is small compared to those in healthcare or construction, but they are high-wage occupations. By 2030, we estimate that this trend could create 20 million to 50 million jobs globally.

对于接下来的三个趋势,我们对趋势线场景和逐步升级场景进行了建模,假设在某些领域进行额外的投资,这些投资是基于政府、商业领袖和个人为创造额外的就业机会而做出的明确选择。

基础设施和建筑投资

基础设施和建筑是历史上两个支出不足的领域,如果采取行动,可能会产生巨大的额外劳动力需求桥梁基础设施的差距克服住房短缺.在趋势线方案中,最多可创造8,000万个就业岗位,在加速投资的情况下,最多可再创造2亿个就业岗位。这些工作包括建筑师、工程师、电工、木匠和其他熟练的商人,以及建筑工人。

在可再生能源、能源效率和气候适应方面的投资

在可再生能源投资例如风能和太阳能;节能技术;和 adaptation and mitigation of climate change may create new demand for workers in a range of occupations, including manufacturing, construction, and installation. These investments could create up to ten million new jobs in the trendline scenario and up to ten million additional jobs globally in the step-up scenario.

以前没有报酬的家务劳动“市场化”

我们考虑的最后一个趋势是要付出的潜力,服务替代当前未付和主要的家务劳动。 This so-called marketization of previously unpaid work is already prevalent in advanced economies, and rising female workforce participation worldwide could accelerate the trend. We estimate that this could create 50 million to 90 million jobs globally, mainly in occupations such as childcare, early-childhood education, cleaning, cooking, and gardening.

当我们看到在所有国家的就业增长的净变化,自动化比例最高的就业增长净值的类别包括以下内容:

  • 医疗保健机构
  • 专业人士如工程师,科学家,会计师,分析师
  • IT专业人士和其他技术专家
  • 经理和管理人员,他们的工作不容易被机器所取代
  • 教育工作者,尤其是在年轻人口的新兴经济体
  • “创意”的艺术家,表演者和艺人的小,但越来越类别谁将会在需求的收入增加创造休闲和娱乐更多的需求
  • 制造商及相关行业,特别是在涉及到基础设施和建筑投资较高方案
  • 手动和服务工作不可预知的环境中,如家庭健康助理,园丁

即将到来的劳动力转移可能是非常大的

在职业净值增长或下降的变化暗示着非常多的人可能需要在未来几年转移职业类别和学习新的技能。 The shift could be on a scale not seen since the transition of the labor force out of agriculture in the early 1900s in the United States and Europe, and more recently in in China.

7500万到3.75亿人可能需要转换职业类别,学习新技能。

我们估计,个人4亿和800亿美元之间可以通过自动化和需求在2030年发现世界各地的新的就业机会移位,根据我们的中点,并最早(即,最快速的)自动化采用情景。 New jobs will be available, based on our scenarios of future labor demand and the net impact of automation, as described in the next section.

然而,人们需要找到自己的方式进入这些工作。 Of the total displaced, 75 million to 375 million may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills, under our midpoint and earliest automation adoption scenarios; under our trendline adoption scenario, however, this number would be very small—less than 10 million (Exhibit 1).

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从绝对数字来看,中国面临的工人如果需要自动化的迅速采用,或2030年劳动力的12%,切换职业,高达1亿的数量最多。 While that may seem like a large number, it is relatively small compared with the tens of millions of Chinese who have moved out of agriculture in the past 25 years.

对于发达经济体,这可能需要学习新的技能,找到新的职业工作的劳动力所占的份额要高得多:多达三分之一的2030年劳动力在美国和德国,以及近一半的日本。

第3节
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3.是否有在未来足够的工作?

今天有鉴于潜在的自动化是否会有工人足够的就业机会越来越关注的问题。历史会建议这种担忧可能是杞人忧天:随着时间的推移,劳动力市场调整中从技术工人中断需求的变化,虽然在与沮丧实际工资(图表2)倍。

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我们解决有关工作的未来这个问题,通过两套不同的分析:一个基于新的劳动力需求和自动化前面描述的催化剂有限数量的造型,并采用了经济的宏观经济模型,结合之间的动态相互作用的研究中 variables.

如果以史为鉴,我们也可以期待2030年劳动力需求8%至9%会在以前没有存在的新类型的职业。

两种分析让我们得出结论,如果有足够的经济增长,创新和投资,可以有足够的新就业机会,以抵消自动化的影响,虽然在一些发达经济体的额外投资,将需要按照我们的升压场景 reduce the risk of job shortages.

更大的挑战是要确保工人的技能和支持需要过渡到新的就业机会。 Countries that fail to manage this transition could see rising unemployment and depressed wages.

未来创造就业机会从前面所描述的趋势幅度和自动化的对劳动力的影响因国家显著不同,取决于四个因素。

工资水平

高工资使自动化收养强的商业案例。 However, low-wage countries may be affected as well, if companies adopt automation to boost quality, achieve tighter production control, move production closer to end consumers in high-wage countries, or other benefits beyond reducing labor costs.

需求增长

经济增长是创造就业至关重要; economies that are stagnant or growing slowly create few if any net new jobs. Countries with stronger economic and productivity growth and innovation will therefore be expected to experience more new labor demand.

人口统计学

与快速增长的劳动力的国家,如印度,可以享受“人口红利”是提升GDP的增长,如果年轻人都在使用。 Countries with a shrinking workforce, such as Japan, can expect lower future GDP growth, derived only from productivity growth.

混合经济部门和职业的

各国自动化潜在反映了经济部门的结构和作业每个扇区内的组合。 Japan, for example, has a higher automation potential than the United States because the weight of sectors that are highly automatable, such as manufacturing, is higher.

自动化会以不同方式影响的国家

刚刚描述的四个因素结合起来,创造在每一个国家工作的未来前景不同(见互动热图)。 Japan is rich, but its economy is projected to grow slowly to 2030. It faces the combination of slower job creation coming from economic expansion and a large share of work that can be automated as a result of high wages and the structure of its economy.

互动

但是,日本也将在四百万人民看到,到2030年其劳动力收缩。 In the step-up scenario, and considering the jobs in new occupations we cannot envision today, Japan’s net change in jobs could be roughly in balance.

美国和德国也可能在2030年面临的自动化显著劳动力位移,但他们预计的未来的增长,因此新的创造就业机会,更高。 The United States has a growing workforce, and in the step-up scenario, with innovations leading to new types of occupations and work, it is roughly in balance. Germany’s workforce will decline by three million people by 2030, and it will have more than enough labor demand to employ all its workers, even in the trendline scenario.

在另一个极端是印度:超过未来15年的自动化相对温和的潜力快速成长的发展中国家,反映了较低的工资水平。 Our analysis finds that most occupational categories are projected to grow in India, reflecting its potential for strong economic expansion.

然而,印度的劳动力预计138万人,到2030年,约30%的速度增长。 India could create enough new jobs to offset automation and employ these new entrants by undertaking the investments in our step-up scenario.

中国和墨西哥的工资高于印度,因此很可能会看到更多的自动化。 China is still projected to have robust economic growth and will have a shrinking workforce; like Germany, China’s problem could be a shortage of workers.

墨西哥的预计未来经济扩张的速度是比较温和,并且它可以从在新的职业和活动升压方案以及创新的创造就业机会受益于充分利用其劳动力。

失业工人将需要尽快再就业,避免失业率上升

为了模拟自动化对整体就业和工资的影响,我们使用了一个一般均衡模型,考虑到自动化和动态互动的经济影响。 Automation has at least three distinct economic impacts. Most attention has been devoted to the potential displacement of labor. But automation also may raise labor productivity: firms adopt automation only when doing so enables them to produce more or higher-quality output with the same or fewer inputs (including material, energy, and labor inputs). The third impact is that automation adoption raises investment in the economy, lifting short-term GDP growth. We model all three effects. We also create different scenarios for how quickly displaced workers find new employment, based on historical data.

结果表明,在几乎所有情况下,这六个国家是我们的报告(中国,德国,印度,日本,墨西哥和美国)的重点可预计能达到或非常接近充分就业,到2030年不过,该模型也说明快速reemploying失业工人的重要性。

如果下岗工人能够在一年内实现再就业,我们的模型显示自动化提升整体经济:充分就业,保持在短期和长期两种,工资增长比基准模型更快,效率更高。

然而,在方案中的一些下岗工人需要几年时间才能找到新的工作,失业率的上升在短期至中期。 The labor market adjusts over time and unemployment falls—but with slower average wage growth. In these scenarios, average wages end up lower in 2030 than in the baseline model, which could dampen aggregate demand and long-term growth.

第4节
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4.什么将自动化的平均技能和工资?

一般情况下,可成长的职业的现行教育的要求比那些通过自动化流离失所的作业更高。 In advanced economies, occupations that currently require only a secondary education or less see a net decline from automation, while those occupations requiring college degrees and higher grow.

在印度和其他新兴经济体,我们发现所有的教育水平更高的劳动力需求,随着新的就业岗位要求中学教育职业的数量最多,但就业增长速度最快的将是目前需要大专或高级学位的职业。

未来的工人们将花费活动的机器能够较少,如管理人员,应用专业知识,并与他人沟通更多的时间。 They will spend less time on predictable physical activities and on collecting and processing data, where machines already exceed human performance. The skills and capabilities required will also shift, requiring more social and emotional skills and more advanced cognitive capabilities, such as logical reasoning and creativity.

工资可能停滞或下降的职业下降。 Although we do not model shifts in relative wages across occupations, the basic economics of labor supply and demand suggests that this should be the case for occupations in which labor demand declines.

我们的分析显示,在美国和其他发达经济体最的就业增长将在目前的职业,在工资分配的高端。 Some occupations that are currently low wage, such as nursing assistants and teaching assistants, will also increase, while a wide range of middle-income occupations will have the largest employment declines.

收入两极分化可能会继续。 Policy choices such as increasing investments in infrastructure, buildings, and energy transitions could help create additional demand for middle-wage jobs such as construction workers in advanced economies.

工资趋势的画面是在新兴经济体,如中国和印度,很大的不同在那里我们的情况表明,中等收入的工作,如零售销售人员和教师,因为这些经济体的发展将增长之最。 This implies that their consuming class will continue to grow in the decades ahead.

第5
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5.我们如何管理员工即将转变?

人工智能和自动化的好处对用户和企业,以及经济增长可能通过他们的生产力的贡献来的,是引人注目的。 They will not only contribute to dynamic economies that create jobs but also help create the economic surpluses that will enable societies to address the workforce transitions that will likely happen regardless.

与我们所描述的工人转移的规模面前,一个反应可能是尽量慢,企图维持现状的步伐,并采用范围。 But this would be a mistake. Although slower adoption might limit the scale of workforce transitions, it would curtail the contributions that these technologies make to business dynamism and economic growth. We should embrace these technologies but also address the workforce transitions and challenges they bring. In many countries, this may require an initiative on the scale of the Marshall Plan, involving sustained investment, new training models, programs to ease worker transitions, income support, and collaboration between the public and private sectors.

所有的社会都需要解决四个关键领域。

保持强劲的经济增长,以支持创造就业机会

持续强劲的总需求增长的关键是要支持新的创造就业机会,如新企业的形成和创新的支持力度。 Fiscal and monetary policies that ensure sufficient aggregate demand, as well as support for business investment and innovation, will be essential. Targeted initiatives in certain sectors could also help, including, for example, increasing investments in infrastructure and energy transitions.

缩放和reimagining再就业培训和劳动力技能发展

提供再就业培训和使个人学习适销对路的新技术,其一生将是一个严峻的挑战,并为一些国家的主要挑战。 Midcareer retraining will become ever more important as the skill mix needed for a successful career changes. Business can take a lead in some areas, including with on-the-job training and providing opportunities to workers to upgrade their skills.

提高企业和劳动力市场的活力,包括移动

更大的流动将需要在劳动力市场来管理我们预计的艰难过渡。 This includes restoring now-waning labor mobility in advanced economies. Digital talent platforms can foster fluidity, by matching workers and companies seeking their skills and by providing a plethora of new work opportunities for those open to taking them. Policy makers in countries with inflexible labor markets can learn from others that have deregulated, such as Germany, which transformed its federal unemployment agency into a powerful job-matching entity.

为工人提供收入和过渡支持

收入支持和其他形式的帮助失业者过渡援助的找到有报酬的工作将是至关重要的。 Beyond retraining, a range of policies can help, including unemployment insurance, public assistance in finding work, and portable benefits that follow workers between jobs.

我们从历史中知道,在许多职业的工资可以在劳动力转移郁闷了一段时间。 More permanent policies to supplement work incomes might be needed to support aggregate demand and ensure societal fairness. More comprehensive minimum-wage policies, universal basic income, or wage gains tied to生产率增长正在探索所有可能的解决方案。

政策制定者,商业领袖和职工个人都具有建设性和重要的作用在未来平滑过渡的劳动力发挥。 History shows us that societies across the globe, when faced with monumental challenges, often rise to the occasion for the well-being of their citizens.

然而,在过去的几十年中,投资和支持人力政策已经侵蚀。 Public spending on labor-force training and support has fallen in most member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Educational models have not fundamentally changed in 100 years. It is now critical to reverse these trends, with governments making workforce transitions and job creation a more urgent priority.

在一个工作的角色和意义开始转变的世界里,我们都需要有创造性的视野来看待未来我们的生活是如何组织和有价值的。

企业将在工作的第一线,因为它的变化。 This will require them to both retool their business processes and reevaluate their talent strategies and workforce needs, carefully considering which individuals are needed, which can be redeployed to other jobs, and where new talent may be required. Many companies are finding it is in their self-interest—as well as part of their societal responsibility—to train and prepare workers for a new world of work.

个人也将需要工作迅速发展的未来做好准备。 Acquiring new skills that are in demand and resetting intuition about the world of work will be critical for their own well-being. There will be demand for human labor, but workers everywhere will need to rethink traditional notions of where they work, how they work, and what talents and capabilities they bring to that work.

作者简介(S)

詹姆斯Manyika是的董事长,并在麦肯锡全球研究院,其中一个董事亚搏平台登录苏珊·隆德迈克尔·翠是合作伙伴和雅克Bughin华强森为董事;Parul巴特拉是麦肯锡旧金山分公司咨询顾问;亚搏平台登录 and瑞安KoSaurabh Sanghvi是硅谷办公室的顾问。

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