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气候风险和应对:物理性危害和社会经济影响

地球怎么可能正在改变气候的影响社会经济系统在世界各地,在未来三个十年? A yearlong, cross-disciplinary research effort at McKinsey & Company provides some answers.

经过一万多年相对稳定,人的满量程的文明,地球气候正在发生变化。 As average temperatures rise, climate science finds that acute hazards such as heat waves and floods grow in frequency and severity, and chronic hazards, such as drought and rising sea levels, intensify (Exhibit 1). In this report, we focus on understanding the nature and extent of physical risk from a changing climate over the next one to three decades, exploring physical risk as it is the basis of both transition and liability risks.

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我们估计固有的物理风险,不存在适应和减缓,到尺寸的挑战的重要性,并强调采取行动的情况下。 Climate science makes extensive use of scenarios ranging from lower (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) to higher (RCP 8.5) CO2浓度。 We have chosen to focus on RCP 8.5, because the higher-emission scenario it portrays enables us to assess physical risk in the absence of further decarbonization. (For more details click on “Our research methodology”). In this report, we link climate models with economic projections to examine nine cases that illustrate exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds. A separate geospatial assessment examines six indicators to assess potential socioeconomic impact in 105 countries. We also provide decision makers with a new framework and methodology to estimate risks in their own specific context.

第1部分

物理气候风险七大特点脱颖而出

我们发现,从气候变化,身体的风险已经存在和发展。 Seven characteristics stand out. Physical climate risk is:

增加:在我们的每一个9个案例的物理气候风险增大,到2030年,进一步的水平,到2050年在我们的情况下,我们发现在2050年的大约两和20倍之间的社会经济影响与今天的水平的提高。 We also find physical climate risks are increasing across our global country analysis even as some countries find some benefits (such as expected increase in agricultural yields如加拿大国家)。

空间:气候灾害本地表现。 The direct impacts of physical climate risk thus need to be understood in the context of a geographically defined area. There are variations between countries and within countries.

变暖是“锁定”未来十年,因为在地球物理系统中的物理惯性。

非平稳:随着地球继续变暖,自然气候风险是不断变化的还是非稳定的。 Further warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system.气候科学告诉我们,进一步变暖和风险的增加只能通过实现零温室气体净排放被停止。此外,鉴于地球系统的热惯性,也有可能出现变暖的一定量的净零排放达到了。

非线性:社会经济的影响有可能以非线性方式传播的危害达到阈值,超过该受影响的生理,人为,或生态系统中作用不佳或分解,并完全停止工作。 This is because such systems have evolved or been optimized over time for historical climates (Exhibit 2).

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全身:尽管气候变化的直接影响是局部的,它可以敲上各地区和行业的影响,通过相互连接的社会经济和金融体系。

回归:内我们每一个案件的最贫困社区和居民通常是最脆弱的。 Climate risk creates spatial inequality, as it may simultaneously benefit some regions while hurting others.

准备不足:虽然公司和社区已经适应减少气候风险,速度和适应的规模可能需要显著增加管理的物理气候风险水平不断提高。 Adaptation is likely to entail rising costs and tough choices that may include whether to invest in hardening or relocate people and assets.

第2部分

气候变化已经在世界各地的地区大幅度的实际影响

这颗行星的温度自19世纪80年代的平均上升了约摄氏1.1度。 This has been confirmed by both satellite measurements and by the analysis of hundreds of thousands of independent weather station observations from across the globe. Scientists find that the rapid decline in the planet’s surface ice cover provides further evidence.变暖的这个比率至少一个数量级比任何在过去的6500万年的古气候记录,发现速度更快。

在极端的平均数掩盖更戏剧性的变化。 In statistical terms, distributions of temperature are shifting to the right (towards warmer temperatures) and broadening. That means the average day in many locations is now hotter (“shifting means”), and extremely hot days are becoming more likely (“fattening tails”). For example, the evolution of the distribution of observed average summer temperatures for each 100-by-100-kilometer square in the Northern Hemisphere shows that the mean summer temperature has increased over time (Exhibit 3). The share of the Northern Hemisphere (in square kilometers) that experiences an extremely hot summer—three-standard-deviation hotter average temperature in a given summer—has increased from zero to half a percent.

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平均值也掩饰不住宽的空间差异。 Over the same period that the Earth globally has warmed by 1.1 degrees, in非洲北极和南部地区,平均温度已经通过0.2和0.5摄氏度和由摄氏4至4.3度上升, 分别。 In general, the land surface has warmed faster than the 1.1-degree global average, and the oceans, which have a higher heat capacity, have warmed less.

受影响的地区将在数量和规模增长

展望未来,气候科学告诉我们,进一步升温是未来十年不可避免的,至少,在所有的可能性更高。 With increases in global average temperatures, climate models indicate a rise in climate hazards globally. These models find that further warming will continue to increase the frequency and/or severity of acute climate hazards and further intensify chronic hazards (Exhibit 4).

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第3部分

社会经济的影响将可能是非线性的,具有连锁效应

气候变化影响人类生活,以及在其上我们的经济活动所依据的生产要素。 We measure the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could disrupt or destroy human life, as well as physical and natural capital.

气候变化已经具有可测量的社会经济影响以及我们将这些影响在五系统框架。 This impact framework is our best effort to capture the range of socioeconomic impacts from physical climate hazards and includes:

  • 可居住性和可操作性。像热应激的危害可能会影响人类对户外工作的能力,在极端的情况下,可以把人的生命处于危险之中。 Increased temperatures could also shift disease vectors and thus affect human health.
  • 粮食系统。粮食生产可能受到干扰,因为干旱,极端温度,或洪水影响的土地和庄稼,虽然气候变化可能会改善一些地区的粮食系统的性能。
  • 有形资产。建筑物等有形资产可能会被损坏或极端降水,驱潮,森林火灾和其他灾害破坏。
  • 基础设施服务。基础设施资产是一种特殊类型可能被摧毁或他们的运作打乱,导致他们提供的服务或下降这些服务的成本上升实物资产的。 This in turn can have knock-on effects on other sectors that rely on these infrastructure assets.
  • 自然资本。气候变化正在改变生态系统,破坏自然资本的形式,如冰川,森林和海洋生态系统,这给人类社会提供重要的服务。 This in turn imperils the human habitat and economic activity.

在不同地区和部门,我们检查,物理气候风险的九个不同的情况,包括直接影响和连锁反应,以及适应成本和战略,帮助说明不同的自然气候灾害对被检查人的具体的社会经济影响的,物理的或天然的系统(图5)。 Our cases cover each of the five systems across geographies and include multiple climate hazards, sometimes occurring at the same location. Overall, our cases highlight a wide range of vulnerabilities to the changing climate.

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为什么一个稳定的环境对我们的企业和我们的生活中的重要

具体来说,我们看着气候变化对印度和地中海宜居性和可操作性的影响; disruption of food systems through looking at global breadbaskets and African agriculture; physical asset destruction in residential real estate in Florida and in supply chains for semiconductors and heavy rare earth metals; disruption of five types of infrastructure services and, in particular, the threat of flooding to urban areas; and destruction of natural capital through impacts on glaciers, oceans, and forests.

我们的案例研究表明,物理气候风险正在以非线性的方式增长。物理气候影响正在跨区域扩散,即使灾害及其影响在区域内变得更加强烈。迄今为止,气候灾害的直接影响的增加大部分来自于更大的暴露于危险而不是来自于危险的平均和尾部强度的增加。今后,灾害的加剧可能会发挥更大的作用。我们案例的主要发现包括:

在大多数气候的危害至今直接影响的增加都来自更大的暴露于危险而不是从危险的平均和尾部强度增大。 In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role.

  • 最危险的社会和制度是那些已经接近物理和生物阈值。 For example, as heat and humidity increase in India, by 2030 under an RCP 8.5 scenario, between 160 million and 200 million people could live in regions with a 5 percent average annual probability of experiencing a heat wave that exceeds the survivability threshold for a healthy human being, absent an adaptation response. (The technical threshold we employed is a three-day heatwave with wet-bulb temperatures of 34 degrees Celsius. At that point, the urban heat island effect could increase the wet-bulb temperature to 35 degrees Celsius. All our lethal heatwave projections are subject to uncertainty related to the future behavior of atmospheric aerosols and urban heat island or cooling island effects). Outdoor labor productivity is also expected to be impacted, reducing the effective number of hours that can be worked outdoors. By 2030, the average number of lost daylight working hours in India could increase to the point where between 2.5 and 4.5 percent of GDP could be at risk annually, according to our estimates.
  • 经济和金融体系的设计和风险一定程度的优化,提高灾害可能意味着这样的系统,当他们到达亚搏竞彩vip晋级优惠全身的阈值是脆弱的。 For example, supply chains are often designed for efficiency over resiliency, by concentrating production in certain locations and maintaining low inventory levels. Food production is also heavily concentrated; just five regional “breadbasket” areas account for about 60 percent of global grain production. Rising climate hazards might therefore cause such systems to fail, for example if key production hubs are affected.
  • 金融市场可能带来的风险向前承认受影响的地区,对资金分配和保险的成本和可用性的后果。 Risk recognition could trigger capital reallocation and asset repricing and indicates the presence of systemic risk. In Florida, for example, estimates based on past trends suggest that losses from flooding could devalue exposed homes by $30 to $80 billion, or 15 to 35 percent, by 2050, all else being equal. Rough estimates suggest that this in turn could impact property tax revenue in some of the most affected counties by 15 to 30 percent (though impacts across the state could be less, up to 2 to 5 percent).
  • 大爆震上影响阈值时被破坏,可能会发生。 These systemic risks come about in particular when the people and assets affected are central to local economies and those local economies are tied into other economic and financial systems. In Ho Chi Minh City, direct infrastructure asset damage from a 100-year flood could rise from about $200—$300 million today to $500 million to $1 billion in 2050, while knock-on costs to the economy could rise from $100—$400 million to between $2 billion and $8.5 billion. In another case, ocean warming could reduce fish catches, for example, affecting the livelihoods of 650 million to 800 million people who rely on fishing revenue.
  • 气候变化可能造成的不平等,同时受益的某些地区,而伤害他人。 For example, rising temperatures may boost tourism in areas of northern Europe while reducing the economic vitality of southern European resorts. Within regions, the poorest communities and populations within each of our cases typically are the most vulnerable to climate events. They often lack financial means as well as support from public or private agencies. For example, climate events could trigger harvest failure in multiple breadbasket locations—that is, significantly lower-than-average yields in two or more key production regions for rice, wheat, corn, and soy. This could lead to rising food prices, particularly hurting the poorest communities, including the 750 million people living below the international poverty line.

第4部分

全球社会经济的影响可能是巨大的

虽然我们的案例研究说明了气候变化的局部影响,但气温上升是全球趋势,我们评估了105个国家的物理气候危害可能如何演变。

在我们对固有风险的评估中,我们发现到2030年,预计所有105个国家的人力、物力和自然资本存量将至少出现一种主要类型的增加。气候灾害的加剧可能危及数百万人的生命,以及数万亿美元的经济活动和物质资本,以及全球的自然资本存量。跨区域的气候灾害加剧将使迄今未受影响的地区面临新的风险。特别是:

  • 到2050年,一个RCP 8.5情景下,生活在地区的致命热浪的非零机会的人数将从现在的零上升到700万,1.2十亿之间(而不是在空调普及率保理)。 Urban areas in India and Pakistan may be the first places in the world to experience such lethal heatwaves (Exhibit 6). For the people living in these regions, the average annual likelihood of experiencing such a heat wave is projected to rise to 14 percent by 2050. The average share of effective annual outdoor working hours lost due to extreme heat in exposed regions globally could increase from 10 percent today to 10 to 15 percent by 2030 and 15 to 20 percent by 2050.
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  • 粮食系统预计将看到全球农产品产量波动增加向着更坏的结果偏斜。 For example, by 2050, the annual probability of a 10 percent or more reduction in yields for wheat, corn, soy, and rice in a given year is projected to increase from 6 percent to 20 percent. The annual probability of a 10 percent or more increase in yield in a given year is expected to rise from 1 percent to 6 percent.
  • 资产可以被摧毁或基础设施资产服务,从各种灾害,包括洪水,森林火灾,飓风和热破坏。 Statistically expected damage to capital stock from riverine flooding could double by 2030 from today’s levels and quadruple by 2050.
  • 在世界各地,生物群落,植物和动物栖息的特定区域的自然发生的社会,有望转变。 Today, about 25 percent of the Earth’s land area has already experienced a shift in climate classification compared with the 1901–25 period. By 2050, that number is projected to increase to about 45 percent. Almost every country will see some risk of biome shift by 2050, affecting ecosystem services, local livelihoods, and species’ habitat (Exhibit 7).
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第5部分

人均水平较低的国家国内生产总值一般都更容易受到

虽然所有国家都受到气候变化的影响,但我们发现,最贫穷的国家可能受到的影响更大,因为它们的气候往往更接近危险的物理阈值。他们也更多地依赖户外工作和自然资本,而缺乏快速适应的金融手段。温度和湿度上升对工作性能的影响所带来的风险,是穷国更容易受到气候灾害影响的一个例子。当看着和易性指标(即有效的比例每年户外工作时间输给了极端高温和湿度),国家的最高四分位数(基于人均国内生产总值)的平均风险增加到2050年的大约1到3个基点,而底部四分位数面临平均增加的风险大约5到10个基点。致命的热浪与人均GDP的相关性较低,但值得注意的是,受影响最严重的几个国家——孟加拉国、印度和巴基斯坦等国——人均GDP水平相对较低。

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由于地球变暖,空间范围和干旱所花费的时间份额有望增加,到2050年上升到大于在世界各地80%,特别是地中海,南部非洲,中美洲和南美洲。 © National Geographic

第6部分

有什么可以决策者吗?

面对这些挑战,政策制定者和商界领袖将需要采取正确的工具、分析、流程和治理,以正确评估气候风险,适应被锁定的风险,并脱碳以减少风险的进一步积累。

正如对信息系统和网络风险的思考已经融入了企业和公共部门的决策,气候变化也需要成为决策的一个主要因素。对企业而言,这意味着在考虑资本配置、产品或服务开发、供应链管理等问题时,要考虑气候因素。对于城市来说,气候问题将成为城市规划决策的关键。金融机构可以考虑他们投资组合中的风险。开发健壮的定量理解是复杂的,并且还需要使用新的工具、度量和分析。与此同时,气候变化带来的机遇将会出现,需要加以考虑。这些可能产生于自然环境的变化,如农业生产的新场所,或旅游等部门,以及通过使用新技术和方法来管理气候变化中的风险。最大的挑战之一可能来自于使用错误的模型来量化风险。这些模型包括用于进行资本配置决策的金融模型,以及用于设计结构的工程模型。亚搏竞彩vip晋级优惠例如,当前的模型可能没有充分考虑地理空间维度,或者基于不再适用的历史先例的假设。

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企业如何已经受到气候变化的影响

社会一直在适应不断变化的气候,但适应的速度和规模可能需要显著提高。关键的适应措施包括保护人民和资产,建立适应能力,减少风险,确保适当的融资和保险到位。实施适应措施可能面临诸多挑战。随着时间的推移,适应气候变化的经济效益可能会在某些地理环境中恶化,例如,那些暴露于海平面上升的地区。适应可能面临技术或其他限制。在其他情况下,可能存在需要评估的艰难权衡,包括谁和什么需要保护,以及谁和什么需要重新安置。

虽然适应现在是迫切的,有很多适应的机会,气候科学告诉我们,从进一步升温的风险只能通过实现零温室气体净排放被停止。 Decarbonization is not the focus of this research, however, decarbonization investments will need to be considered in parallel with adaptation investments, particularly in the transition to renewable energy. Stakeholders should consider assessing their decarbonization potential and opportunities from decarbonization.

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